Who’s to blame?

So it seems that just about every article in the news is about or related to the current economy and dismal state of things. Who am I to stay off the band wagon?

So I’d like to just point out my views on who is to blame and what we can do to avoid worsening and/or repeating things. First my blame list:

1 Walmart. Those who know me know that I hate Walmart. The thing they have done that is hurting us can be seen in our current trade deficit. Levi’s wanted to place their jeans in Walmart. Walmart told them in essence “No. Not until you have closed your current manufacturing plants and moved them to cheaper markets”. Now some argue that this makes sense, but it doesn’t help our economy does it. Victims: Rubbermaid, Vlasic, Levi’s, the list goes on and on and on and on.

2. Stupid Consumers. This one goes without saying. When you are trying SOOO hard to out do your neighbors with your shiny new boat, truck (that you don’t need), ATV’s, motorcycle, SUV, BMW, and landscaping you didn’t stop to figure out if you could really afford it, did you? No, you didn’t. For the last 30 years or so we’ve been leaning towards this attitude that “the world owes me this” and we justify without consulting the books. Instead, we consult people who stand to profit from our ignorance. “Hey, the salesman looked at my debt to income ratio and told me this is what I should be spending on a car”. Yes, I have actually heard that one almost word for word.

3. Credit Card Companies. For years the credit industry has successfully lobbied to get laws passed where they are not held to the same rules as banks regarding your money. They have the ability to change a contract that you signed without your approval. At any time, for any reason. And then they urge consumers to keep the maximum balance on those accounts. What did they think would happen?

4. Jimmy Carter and Affirmative Action. Now you may be saying, “What the crap does that have to do with it?” I have always felt that affirmative action was not the most thought out solution to anything. “But could it really help ruin the economy? Think of it in terms of equal housing lending. Prior to the 1970′s, banks gave loans based on whether or not you could pay it back. They changed the rules when they gave banks breaks for giving loans to people based on race. Think about that for a second. Just because you’re black, red, yellow, brown, slightly blueish, whatever the color, if you have a non-white color, we can give you a loan that the accountants would normally deny. It doesn’t take a statistician to see where this can start to mess things up.

5. Mortgage Lenders. There are cases where someone gets income only a few times a year. So they invented these interest only loans. Perfect for the right people. Put in the wrong hands, it’s a financial nightmare. The lenders knew that if you let the wrong people into these mortgages, it would come back to bite them but they were more concerned with getting the fees and selling off the mortgage, hoping that they could get rid of the mortgages fast enough.

6. Mortgage Brokers. Now who gets the wrong people into the wrong loans? It’s the brokers. They knew what they were doing. I have a neighbor who is in an interest only $300K mortgage on a teachers salary. Of course they can’t refinance now, and what’s going to happen when they have to start paying the principal? They don’t have any options now. Thanks mortgage broker.

7. Real Estate Investors. For the last decade, real estate has been touted as the perfect investment vehicle. Signs everywhere. Like when Amway came out. Everyone had an angle on the market. But what happens when you get more real estate investors than home buyers?
Seriously, DID NO ONE STOP TO ASK THESE QUESTIONS?!?!

8. Big Oil Companies. Now everyone knows that with the prices of oil rising, the price of gas must also rise. But not so disproportionately like it has. Ok, so I think that’s fine for people to change their prices. That’s just capitalism. But when your price effects the price of just about every other good bought and sold on the market, it must be done with more prudence than has been demonstrated by the gas companies. I’m not usually in favor of regulation but when your kids have proven that they aren’t grown up enough to cross the street alone, you have to do some hand holding. Curse you big oil.

So what to do about it:

1. Use Cash. It helps you be more conscious of what you spend on personal things

2. Spend less than you earn. How many times have we heard that and said “Well Duh”? We must need to keep hearing it cause I hear it all the time.

3. Drive a used car. What’s the point of having a car that was made this year? Really.

4. Live if a house that fits your needs AND BUDGET. If you don’t know your budget, please move to China.

5. Buy American. No really. look for the little Made In **** Label. Avoid Places with whom we have a trade deficit (CHINA)

6. Don’t take advice from ANYONE who is going to receive money because of your actions. Real estate agents, car salesmen, insurance brokers, maybe even waiters. K, I actually listen to my waiters quite a bit, that one might be going too far but you get the point.

7. Invest in small business. Maybe by buying at small business, maybe by referring them to friends, maybe by actually investing money with them. Small business is who finances this country. Jobs, taxes. Their money stays here for the most part. That means it makes our economy more healthy.

8. Drive less. Telecommute. Carpool. Ride a bike. Buy local goods (things that haven’t been transported very far). Build an EV.

9. Don’t do stupid things to try to get ahead. Almost everything on my blame list can be linked to that. What is it they say? “What goes around…”

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Big Numbers

Right now, there is $2.4 TRILLION in homes sitting empty in the USA. Let me type that our with numbers just so you can see how big that number really is. $2,400,000,000,000. That’s right, 13 digits. How many numbers do we deal with that have 13 digits, really? Not that many. Especially when it is attached to a dollar sign.

When a home finishes going throug the very painful and costly foreclosure process the bank adds it to their REO list. Large banks that do deal with some 13 digit numbers can have the REO packages divided into blocks that range in the $1,000,000,000′s. Yes, that’s billions. Those are then sold off to large investors for dimes on the dollar who inturn, divide their new REO package into blocks that range in the larger $1,000,000′s. Possibly $100,000,000′s. Those are then sold off to smaller investors who repeat the cycle until they are liquidating individual homes. By that time, you are looking at them selling at almost face value.

So how does one get in on a forclosed home at $.40 on the dollar? Well you can’t. Unless you happen to have 11 or 12 digits sitting around in liquid assets. But then at that point, who cares about getting $.40 on the dollar? Just go get a private island. Or better yet, just go buy a small government somewhere in Africa or South-East Asia.

So I think it’s funny when you start mentioning bigger numbers that people can still comprehend. $100,000? Easy. That’ll only get you a couple nice cars. Almost everyone I know has no problem wrapping their head around the 100K figure. Now, $1,000,000? Attainable? Yes, for most people. Maybe not in one solid chunk, but I know quite a few “average” people who have had more than a million dollars pass through their hands. $10,000,000? Ok now, we’re starting to get to the point where we’re losing people. Their eyes glaze over and the mutter to themselves “$10M? I have no idea what that would be like.” $100,000,000? Most people are now in college textbook, everning news, world markets that don’t effect me land.

In business, it’s a little different. You lose some people with big numbers. But others perk up and pay attention when you mention bigger numbers.

Here’s a good test to see if someone is cut out for business. Tell them that you are going to inherit/win/find/earn some large amount of money. Make it (semi)beleivable but make it big. People who are not cut out for business will ask what you are going to spend it on if they believe you at all. People who are into business will give you advice as to where you should invest it.

By the way, I’m going to earn $1,000,000,000 :)

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Marketing Blunders

First on my list today: Motorola. A little over 2 years ago, my wife and I were shopping for a new mobile phone package where we could share minutes and not spend more than $70/month. We found one from Cingular. We found that we could even get 2 brand new RAZr’s for free* (* should be read as “ok, not really, but the lawyers tell us we can kinda lie about it.”) so we signed up. Loved the phone. Loved the service. Loved the rollover minutes. I had quite the stockpile growing until I started my own business. So everything is just wonderful.

Then on the morning of Sept 25, my battery was dying. I went to charge it up and it wouldn’t charge. “Crap, the charger died”, it’s the only logical assumption. So I brought it to work and tried my charger here. Still nothing. Tried it on Joel’s charger. Nothing. Tried another battery. Nothing. Tried my batteries in Joel’s phone and on his charger. SUCCESS! “Wait, so it’s the phone? Crap” Well I have been looking for an excuse to get an iPhone. So I went and got one. “Woohoo. now I’m happy!” Better call the wife to let hew know the good news. Hmmm, no answer. All day no answer. Get home and find out that here RAZr is doing the exact same thing. How odd.

Two exactly identical phones; two identical mysterious, undocumented by AT&T support, Crippling situations. Coincidence? Come on, really. What are the odds? “Well I defy you Motorola! You’re not going to trick me into upgrading to another booby trapped RAZr!”

Second on my List: Apple. I am more than pleased with the new iPhone. It’s almost what all the hype has cracked it up to be. No seriously, it’s freaking cool. I got a ton of things customized. So I have my old ring tones (which you CAN’T buy on iTunes) and I want to put them on my phone. Especially the one I want for my early morning wake up alarm. Well it turns out that I can’t. Apple has made it impossible to put your own ring tones that you have edited or created onto your iPhone without voiding the warranty. Sure I can go get any of 500,000 songs in iTunes and pay AGAIN to make it into a ring tone. But I don’t want those songs. I want “Busted” by the Social Comas. I want a bunch of other indi titles but NOOOOO! Lame Apple. Lame Lame LAME LAME LAME! Apple has historically been pretty good about listening to their users and giving them what they want.

Message to APPLE: Please figure out that people want their own ring tones before a halfway decent iPhone knockoff comes out. Because even if it was Motorola, I’d probably get it just so I could have MY ring tones.

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Brilliant Marketing Schemes that Owe the World $Billions. Nay, $Trillions

I pulled up to a stoplight on the way to work this morning and looked over to see how bad the gas companies are screwing us. “$2.99!?!?! Wooooo Hoooo!” I actually caught myself cheering out loud in the car there. Then I stopped. “$2.99? That’s not a good deal.  I recall filling up my entire tank of gas for $8.00.” And that wasn’t that long ago.

So the gas companies have this predictable pattern they follow pretty closely. Gas prices will move along for half a year or so fluctuating up and down by a few percentages. Then some event will happen that will trigger a jump in prices. And they’ll jump like 20% or more. Then there will be public outrage, email campaigns to convince the nation to skip one day of gas purchases, news stories on which state has the best and the worst prices, some well known actors or politicians will use it to push their agenda or make a bigger name for themselves. And then the gas companies will “listen” and gas prices will come down by 5% and the nation lapses into oblivious and joyful acceptance. Little do the masses realize that they have just been snowed into being happy about a 15% increase.

Not since the founding of DeBeers has the world had the wool pulled over their collective eyes like this. Diamonds are forever. Bull Crap. Oil production is becoming more expensive. Bull Crap. Greedy Bastards. It’s all just carbon!

I think I’m going to find a way to harvest nitrogen from the air or hydrogen from the oceans and convince the world it’s worth 300 time more than what it costs to harvest. It’s brilliant!

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